Annual Champions League Consipracy Draw

Champions Cup

I'm a conspiracy theorist when it comes to the Champions League draw (Euro and World Cup too). I hold fast that these aren't random, and if there's a David-Blaine-Street-Magic way to rig these suckers, they're going to be rigged. That said, here is my annual Champions League Conspiracy Draw. Enjoy:

Group A: Inter Milan, Real Madrid, Basel, Zilna
Conspiracy theory: There's no way UEFA misses out on Mourinho v. Inter

Group B: Barcelona, Marseille, Spurs, Partizan
Conspiracy theory:  Barca's annual cakewalk
 
Group C: Manchester United, Werder Bremen, Ajax, Cluj
Conspiracy theory: Sir Alex in Transylvania is too juicy not to happen

Group D: Chelsea, Benfica, Schalke, Hapoel
Conspiracy theory: Chelsea has to play a Portuguese team--it's the law!

Group E: Arsenal, Valencia, Braga, Twente
Conspiracy theory: Beware Braga!

Group F: Bayern Munich, Roma, Rangers, Rubin Kazan
Conspiracy theory: The three Rs: Roma, Rangers and Rubin

Group G: AC Milan, Shakhtar, Sparta, Auxerre
Conspiracy theory:  Ukraine v. Mother Russia: Awesomesauce

Group H: Lyon, Panathinaikos, Buraspor, FC København,
Conspiracy theory: Greece v. Turkey: Awesomesauce 2

Champions League Draw: Of Consipiracies and History

Ain't it curious that Jose Mourinho always seems to get an interesting pairing in the Champions League? Ain't the Champions League draw always curious?

I mean, I ain't into no conspiracy theories here (although I do have a crush on Secret Agent Dana Scully), but it does seem that Mourinho and his big mouth and his flamboyant coaching style and his good teams always do seem to hit at least an interesting story line in the Champions League.

Let's look at past history (cue the X-Files theme)

• 2008-2009 -- Inter v. Chelsea (Jose v. Ancellotti)
• 2006-2007 -- Chelsea v Barcelona (group stage after knockout matchup year previous)
• 2006-2007 -- Chelsea v Porto (knockout)
• 2005-2006 -- Chelsea v Barcelona (knockout)
  
• 2004-2005 -- Chelsea v Porto (group stage, year after leaving Porto as defending champion)

Since winning the European title with Porto in '04 and moving from Portugal to the Premiership, Mourinho has slammed headfirst into old ghosts and monster draws. Not that he can't handle it (wait a minute, his teams haven't gotten out of the knockout round for three years now), he has twice gone to the semifinals since winning it, but it seems curiouser and curiouser that lot if life ol' Jose gets.

Not that I'm sayin' anyone is out to get him. I mean, look at ol' David Beckham. No sooner does Becks hint that he's going to back to Milano for another stint with A.C., do the football gods pair him up against his old boss and his old club Manchester United. What a co-inky-dink.

Man, we're so lucky that the balls just happened to fall this way and that the draw ended up the way it did. What a hoot.

I mean how lucky are we from an outsider's point of view to have been granted our biggest Christmas football wishes. I mean Mourinho and Ancelotti, the new Chelsea boss, hate each other! How cool that they'll be up against each other in the knockout round. Imagine!

And Beckham. Back to Old Traffod. Super Cool! And here I was slamming the Champions League for being boring and uninteresting. Shame on me!

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Champions League Draw Today: Quirks and Qualms

There's something inherently wrong with a club getting into the Champions League group stage by the thinnest of margins and still earning an overall No. 3 seed and be placed in Pot 1 for the draw today.

Seriously, Liverpool is a couple of Pepe Reina saves away from playing in the UEFA Cup, and they're in the top pot for the draw along with Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal, Barcelona, Inter, Lyon and Real Madrid. OK, is Liverpool among the top 8 clubs in Europe? Probably, but is that the fairest way to handle this draw?

Look at Pot 2. FC Porto actually won its country's championship. Sames goes for Bayern Munich and way down in Pot 3 we find Scottish champions Celtic. If you go by UEFA's stupid coefficient--yes I understand that's how these teams are seeded for the draw--Celtic is 22nd (Porto 13th, Bayern 9th). Handicapping what is essentially a rigged draw makes this a bigger joke than it is.

The lack of transparency here is abominable. No one can clearly explain the equations behind the coefficient. No one can explain how Sporting is in the Top 15--love 'em, but c'mon. What was the point of automatic qualification for some of these teams that aren't seeded in the top 16 (hello, Celtic, Zenit St. Petersburg, Cluj and Bordeaux)? Shouldn't there be more of a reward for getting in without the hassle of the third round qualifiers?

As for the always-dubious draw, we know if there was a way to rig Inter and Chelsea in the same group, it would be done. That said, they're going to meet in the knockout round--make bank on it. We may not get a Manchester United, Roma pairing in the group stage again, but doesn't Bayern Munich and United together sound juicy? Almost as much as Liverpool-Roma; UEFA is not above a morbid 1985-redux storyline.

I'm naturally cynical, and it probably shows here, but come draw time this afternoon, I bet I'll be closer to correct than off the mark.

Champions League Draw: Arsenal-Liverpool Overload

Any major tournament draw is always met with the same levels of excitement and cynicism. Today, for instance, we have the quarterfinal and semifinal pairings for the Champions League, and with four English teams, there were bound to be eye-openers.

The spotlight pairing clearly is Arsenal-Liverpool, but shockingly, Manchester United and Roma were paired. ManU and Roma were in the same group, and this has to be disappointing to both sides and their respective fans; surely they're tired of each other. This matchup is worthy of a final; both teams are in top form and it will be interesting to see who survives this one and what the winner has left going forward.

The other two matchups feature Barcelona meeting Schalke and Chelsea taking on Fenerbahce. It would seem the two glamour sides here got the better of this deal. Barca won't have Leo Messi when it takes on the upstarts from Germany who handled Portuguese leaders Porto. Chelsea, meanwhile, are real sleepers in the Premiership, in spite of the pressure on their coach Avram Grant.

Back to Arsenal-Liverpool for a second, not only does the guarantee one English side in the semis, but it sets up three matches between these two teams in a week's span: April 2, 5 and 8. WOW. Rafa and Arsene will certainly earn their money that week, not only strategy wise, but in human capital. Who sits, who plays and how often? These are three high-pressure matches and this could be advantage Liverpool. Arsenal would likely need the Premiership match much more than Liverpool, which could take advantage of its fourth- or fifth-place standing and sit some players for the domestic match and focus on Europe.

Cynical view: UEFA's out to get Arsene here (just kidding).

The semifinals, meanwhile, shake out this way:

Arsenal-Liverpool winner vs. Chelsea-Fenerbahce winner
ManU-Roma winner vs. Barca-Schalke winner

Spare us another Liverpool-Chelsea semi, but if that's the price to pay for a titanic ManU-Liverpool final, then so be it.

Oh You Beauty has more on the draw.
101 Great Goals has a brief reaction too.
Abeloa didn't get his wish; read Anfield Talk.
Champions League Talk has some early predictions.

Champions League Draw: Knockout Round-of-16

Now it gets good.

The Champions League round-of-16 draw is out and there are some juicy ties awaiting us in February. I'll do a separate post on England's teams. For now, here's a look at the rest of the draw:

Roma-Real Madrid: Roma is the team no one wants to face. Roma is cursed with some odd luck in terms of teams it draws. In Serie A, it's looking up at Inter Milan, which is running away with the Scudetto with 40 points and a seven-point lead over Roma. In its the group stage, Roma ran into Manchester United, which is on an absolute tear and has not lost a game in three months. Francesco Totti has seven goals this season and is among the leaders in Italy. This should be the tie to watch. Real leads La Liga by two points over Barcelona, whom it plays Sunday in the Spanish classico. Real has been nothing if not consistent this season and both teams figure to have their hands full in this tie.

Celtic-Barcelona: Ho-hum, Celtic leads the Scottish Premier League, what else is new? If you dont' follow Celtic or Rangers, what's the interest in Scottish football? Someone enlighten me, please? Either way, Celtic held off Benfica for second in its group and fell two points short of AC Milan. Barcelona may not have Leo Messi back in time for this tie, which could draw these two closer. Barcelona did not lose during the group stage and beat back Lyon to win by four points.

Schalke 04-F.C. Porto: How odd that Germany's best hope for European silverware, heck Germany's best team, is in the UEFA Cup? Schalke has the Bundesliga's top scorer in Kevin Kuranyi and is in fifth right now, six points back of Bayern Munich. Porto is a tall order indeed. Porto has not lost in Portugal and nicked Liverpool by a point to win its group. Porto has Lucho Gonzalez and Lisandro Lopez, a far cry from the Mourinho days, but still formidable.

Fenerbache-Sevilla: Sevilla, two-time UEFA Cup winners, are after the big prize in Europe this team. The Spanish side is strong right up the middle with Luis Fabiano the leading scorer in Spain, Sergio Duda in midfield and Morgan De Sanctis at stopper. Sevilla beat Arsenal in its group. The Turks, meanwhile, were second to Inter Milan and are realtive newcomers to the knockout stages.

Champions League Draw: Knockout Round Analysis -- England

It’s Milan-squared for England’s group-stage runners-up in the Champions League knockout round. Inter opens the round-of-16 at Anfield, while Arsenal heads to AC Milan.

Inter is arguably the best team in Europe through Christmas and it will be interesting to see how much Champions League magic the Reds have in the bag for Inter. Of even more interest will be Liverpool’s form by then, and of course whether Rafa Benitez will still be behind the bench.

Liverpool sits fifth with 30 points and a game in hand. It has lost three straight to English sides, including 2-0 to Chelsea this week in the Carling Cup, 1-0 to Manchester United and 3-1 to Reading in the Premier League. The only saving grace of late has been Liverpool’s 4-0 win at Marseille putting it through to the Champions League knockout round, where it earned its date with Milan.

Rafa, meanwhile, is working Liverpool’s American owners for a new contract and wants them to loosen the pursestrings for the January transfer window. It’s been a bone of contention between the two sides and could ultimately lead to Rafa’s departure from Anfield at the end of the season if not sooner.

Arsenal, meanwhile, lead the Premiership by a point over United and may have lucked out drawing Milan, which has been miserable in Serie A, in particular at home. It’s the biggest mystery in football given that AC Milan is the only European time yet to win a home game; yes even Derby County has this season. Milan’s misery was compounded yesterday losing the first leg of its round-of-16 Coppa Italia match against Catania.

Chelsea won its group and was drawn with Olympiacos. Avram Grant can do no wrong, still having lost only once since taking over for Jose Mourinho, and now earning a fortunate draw with the Greek side. Chelsea hosts the second leg of the tie.

Manchester United takes on perennial French champions Lyon, and already is boasting about its chances. Club secretary Ken Ramsden was quoted on Soccernet: “[Lyon] won’t be pleased getting us.” He’s probably correct. United has not lost since Sept. 26 (2-0 to Coventry in the Carling Cup) It has lost only once in the Premiership to Manchester City 1-0 on Sept. 19. United’s recent form: seven wins, one draw since tying Arsenal 2-2 on Nov. 3.