2010 World Cup Group of Death:Who's Odd Man Out? Brazil? Portugal?

You know, "Dog" spelled backward is Group of Death.

I love the whole notion of a Group of Death. I mean, there are two guarantees you get out of almost every World Cup draw: A GOD and the host being in just a pitifully easy and uninteresting group; it's a random draw, right Charlize?

Looking at the last few:

2006 -- Germany as the host is paired with Ecuador, Poland and Costa Rica. Cakewalk. 3 wins, 9 points. Finishes third overall

GOD -- Argentina, Netherlands, Ivory Coast and Serbia. Ivory Coast tooth and nail loses a pair of 2-1 decisions to Argentina and Holland, both of whom are done by the end of the quarterfinal round.

2002 -- South Korea as the host is paired with the U.S., Poland and Portugal, benefits from the U.S. upset of Portugal and goes all the way to the semis, beating Italy and Spain along the way. A dream run.

Japan as the co-host gets Belgium, Russia and Tunisia. Japan upsets a weak group then loses to semifinalist Turkey in the second round.

GOD -- Sweden, England, Argentina and Nigeria. Brutal group, chock full of political battles and quietly talented upstarts. Sweden and England escape the group. Sweden loses to Senegal in the second round; England loses to Brazil in the quarterfinals.

1998 -- France as the host gets Denmark, South Africa and Saudi Arabia. Dreadful; 3 wins, 9 points. France wins the whole thing at home.

GOD -- Nigeria, Spain, Paraguay, Bulgaria. All four teams were stellar in the '94 Cup in the USA. Spain bombed out, living up to its reputation as dogs in the big tournament. Nigeria and Paraguay move on from the group, losing to Denmark and France respectively in the second round.

Point is, it's very difficult to escape the Group of Death and win the whole thing. Looking at this year, odds are, you're going to lose either Brazil or Portugal coming out of the group stage; I think Ivory Coast is too good not to steal points from either or both. And then, for whomever does escape in second place--again this could be either Brazil or Portugal, their reward is likely Spain in the second round. How would you like to play two wars in the first round (Brazil-Portugal is the final game of the group stage--God I hope things are not decided by then) and then go on to face what is probably the best team in the world at this moment?

It's just tremendous for football fans, even more so if you're emotionally invested in any of the GOD teams.

I honestly have no idea how this will shake out. I'm certainly not of the camp that Brazil is automatic and it will come down to Portugal and Ivory Coast. I can see Brazil slipping against either. Ivory Coast is in its second straight GOD and held its own quite well; its players are older yes, but experience counts for plenty in a short tournament. And Portugal can be deadly; so talented up and down the field. But it does have Carlos Queiroz up top and that isn't going to inspire confidence in anyone [side note: too bad Scolari isn't still coaching Portugal, talk about tasty].

Can't wait for GOD. Too bad we have to wait for GOD. 185 days to go.

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Euro 2008 Draw Analysis: Group of Death

Waking up early was worth it Sunday morning. Not necessarily because the Euro 2008 draw was sitting there waiting for me on ESPN2, but mere for the entertainment value of watching eight grown men swirl hollow soccer balls about a bowl and pull out the names and group placements of the 16 Euro finalists.

When you see watch these things, it's difficult not to by cynical. When the balls are emptied and you see suspicion manifested as hosts Austria are paired with Germany and Switzerland paired with Turkey. Austria isn't long for the tournament, but gets its glory day with Germany for the sake of the tournament. Same goes for the Swiss, its gets a rematch on home soil with Turkey; remember Turkey players attacking the Swiss during a World Cup qualifier two years ago?

Then we get a legitimate Group of Death. Granted, with 16 teams, it's difficult not to get some juicy pairings, but c'mon: Netherlands, France AND Italy? Italy and France, for some reason, are conjoined at the touch line. Roberto Donadoni said it flat-out: "I had a feeling it would turn out this way." And Holland, well Holland is always in the Group of Death. Remember last year's World Cup: Argentina, Holland, Ivory Coast and Serbia.

This is excess at its best--or is it worst? Rather, well, I'll say it: this is rigged. It's well thought out, well planned and well executed. I don't buy the luck-of-the-draw explanations. I won't swallow that Dino Zoff wasn't a pawn in UEFA's game! No, no, no. There's a master plan at work here.

France opens against Romania and Italy tangles with Holland. France then gets Holland, while Italy has its turn against Romania, setting up the World Cup final rematch between Italy and France. Thank God this game cannot go to penalty kicks! Anyone seen Zizou? If the game's lacking any drama, maybe France can pry the gifted one out of retirement.